Recession risks loom as exports decline again

India’s merchandise exports declined for the third time in five months during February, causing concerns for the country’s economy. The fall in exports by 8.8% from a year ago, amounting to $33.8 billion, was primarily due to a 29% collapse in oil exports and a decline in chemical and engineering goods outflows. This decline was more significant than the one recorded in October 2022, which is alarming for India, given the present scenario of a recessionary trend in major parts of the world. Apart from the decline in oil and chemical shipments, 13 more of India’s top 30 export items also experienced a downturn, indicating the impact of global demand on the Indian economy. Furthermore, the drop in imports by 8.2% in February and the lowest import bill in almost a year ($51.3 billion) does not bode well for domestic demand, which was expected to insulate the economy from global shocks. Although the government is looking to control inessential imports, this may not be enough to tackle the issue at hand. Instead, policymakers must support exporters to tap new markets and respond more quickly to fast-changing dynamics in key markets. It is crucial to avoid any missteps that could restrict consumer and investor choices. The present scenario of declining exports is especially concerning because of the sustained shrinkage of manufacturing for two quarters. A prolonged spell of reduced shipments could result in job losses in the factory and affect consumption. Therefore, the government must act promptly to address the issue before it spirals out of control. India’s export decline in February should not be taken lightly, as it could have significant implications for the country’s economy. The government must take immediate steps to support exporters, encourage the creation of new markets, and respond to rapidly changing dynamics in global markets. Delaying the rejig of the 2015-20 foreign trade policy any further could prove to be a costly mistake.

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