The Indian policy makers, both in the Opposition and in the ruling party, need to reorient their current perception of the US as the World’s only super power and they should not expect much difference in the American towards India with the inauguration of the President Donald Trump in the White House on January 20.
It was an advice of Alok Jagdhari, a US-based investor who manages billions of US dollars in the international money markets, who gave an in-depth, almost 90-minute, presentation at the Press Club of India before a select gathering comprising veterans in media, senior executives of corporate, political and social activists, just a few hours before he flew to New York on the evening, Tuesday, January 14,2025. He, perhaps, was in rush to return to Washington before the historic inauguration of Trump in White House.
It, indeed, was a delight for the listeners, which included Shivaji Sarkar, an economist of the Financial Express fame, Dr. Satish Mishra, a well-known ideologue of the left political views, Shikha Tyagi, a former CEO of Pepsi, Roma Misra, a social activist and author from Mumbai and Ahemdabad and K.B. Mathur, an eminent journalist and a top corporate executive from Montreal, Canada. It was conducted by Pradeep Mathur, editor, Media Map, who had also authored and a book on non-alignment
Asked whether New Delhi should expect a quantum change in India’s growing relationship with the West, especially the US, he clarified that the American system does not allow any president to deviate much from the established policies of the American state, and the Indians irrespective of the political spectrum they belong must realize that during his four-year term, the outgoing President Joe Biden, had allowed the Narendra Modi government optimum concessions despite the reservations of the establishment in Washington. He cautioned that the image of Modi as an individual as well as his government’s attitude towards the civil liberties and the minority rights need to be revisited; also the Indian policy makers irrespective of the political spectrum they represent have to understand and reorient their approach towards the political and economic forces, which determine the super power’s global agenda. He also recalled the higher tariff were introduced during the early thirties in the twentieth century, but the experience has always been that these measures might have political overtones, but they seldom help the concerned economies.
Alok Jagdhari has also ruled out any possibility of containing the influence of the military-industrial complex under the President Trump; he further cautioned that Trump like other politicians indulges in political rhetoric, and like others he too is intensely engaged in the power game. Asked whether, he would genuinely be ending the ongoing war in Europe between Russia and Ukraine, he clarified that the conflict has many dimensions, including the role of the European Union. He does not expect any spectacular political developments in Europe as well as in West Asia.
In reply to a question about the US approach towards China, he stated that during recent years, Beijing has revised its approach towards Taiwan that if an opportunity comes, it would not hesitate to annex the island nation. He also explained that if Taiwan declares itself as an independent, the US would have no responsibility to protect its annexation by China. He, however, admitted that the Chinese penetration in the Central American regions, especially in manning the Panama Canal, has caused anxiety among the members of the establishment comprising Pentagon and Capitol.
According to him, during his second inning Trump is expected to be more cautious. Asked whether Modi was deliberately ignored by denying him the invitation to attend Trump’s inauguration, while the Chinese President Xi Jinping was officially requested to be present at the ceremony, his view was that while Modi was seen too much aligned with the Democratic Party, and his reluctance to communicate with Trump might have also caused this sudden cooling off in their otherwise warm relationship; on the other hand, Jinping, perhaps, was apprehensive of the protocol, he might receive in Washington not befitting to his status as a world leader, decided to avoid the inaugural function.
Impact on India – Alok has cautioned that the impact of the stagflation in the US economy is expected to impact the economies worldwide; and the Indian economy might also face its consequences. He also reminded that in the South-Asian region, India is yet to be recognized as a partner like Japan, south Korea and Australia. It is just an ally, but for obtaining the state-of-the art technologies, India has to work much harder for further improving her ties with the US.
He also ruled out any possibility of the revival of the industrial units in the US, but he suggested that India might be one of the new coveted destination for the American corporations. They might decide to set up their manufacturing plants, but for luring the American capital, he suggested that for this Indian technology have to be really made world class.
Asked whether the gender issues might be dominating in the contemporary American society, he stated that these aberrations have led to social decay in a society, which is considered a developed one; further according to him, it might not have much impact in the global play of forces.
Gopal Misra has been associated with national and international media. His books on journalism and geo-politics have been well-appreciated. Views are personal.
