Even before the Delhi elections, the common discourse in Punjab was that the Congress would most likely win the 2027 Assembly elections. There are several reasons to support this widely prevailing perception.
After the debacle of AAP in Delhi, the party’s entire focus has shifted to Punjab. Its national convener Arvind Kejriwal summoned the Punjab MLAs and ministers to Delhi. One of the major reasons for this, in the changed political scenario post February 8 Delhi polls’ results, was to make them re-swear their loyalty to him and the party and to show to people at large that he is still the boss despite losing his own seat in the elections.
In my view, Kejriwal also staged this show of loyalty test fearing possible defections from the party which cannot be ruled out in the time to come.
The AAP government in Punjab has failed terribly to deliver on its promises, like giving Rs 1000 per month to every woman, corruption-free governance, ending the drug menace, improving the law and order situation, employment generation, availability of sand at cheaper rates, and streamlining the economy.
People believe that the bureaucracy doesn’t listen to the AAP legislators and local leaders. My feedback from the ground is that whenever common people approach AAP leaders to get their issues resolved, they get nothing except false promises in return.
The absolute harassment faced by the farmers during paddy harvesting and procurement season is yet another factor that has fueled this pro-Congress perception. Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann has proved himself inefficient in delivering his promises to farmers like MSP on Moong dal and compensation to flood-affected farmers.
The business community is particularly suffering awfully a lot due to prevalent corruption in several government departments.
The AAP has failed to deliver justice on the issues of the sacrilege of Sri Guru Granth Sahib and the firing incident at Behbal Kalan which had taken place during the SAD-BJP regime.
The bottom line is that the AAP has been shaken by its defeat in Delhi and anticipates its disastrous future in the border state. The top leadership of AAP has started taking measures to save its government in Punjab and perhaps preparing for the next assembly election.
The Congress is the only party left in Punjab that could benefit from the present situation because the Sikh Panth and farmers who used to be the vote bank of SAD, which is not the case now. The party has been dealing with multiple crises within the party. At least till the Punjab Assembly election 2027, SAD will not be able to revive.
Panthic vote and farmers’ vote will never be shifted to BJP because it has its base only in a couple of segments, including Mukerian, Pathankot, and some parts of Ludhiana and Jalandhar. Even if BJP and SAD manage to clinch an alliance, the possibility of its winning is very low.
Moreover, the BSP has already lost its ground among the Dalit community of Doaba region and the Congress has the credit of making the first Dalit CM of Punjab.
Meanwhile, the Punjab Congress is working hard and inching towards winning the 2027 Assembly election.
