The latest official GDP estimates would in normal circumstances be a cause for cheer, pointing as they ostensibly do to a double-digit expansion in economic output in the first quarter. The NSO’s projection of 13.5% growth in gross domestic product from the year-earlier April-June period, however, is disconcertingly slower than the 16.2% pace that the Reserve Bank of India had projected last month and points to an economy that is still in search of a firmer footing. Faced with headwinds — signs of a global recession and the Ukraine war — the first-quarter’s underwhelming momentum may pitch the economy into a far shallower growth trajectory even as faster-than-acceptable inflation erodes consumer confidence. Output in the eight broad sectors that combine to provide the Gross Value Added shows that while year-on-year all sectors expanded, with public administration, defence and other services growing 26.3%, six of these sectors posted sequential contractions. Only two services sectors — electricity, gas, water and other utility services, and financial and professional services — logged expansions from the January-March quarter, growing by 12.6% and 23.7%, respectively. Given that this year’s monsoon has distributed rains in an erratic scattershot pattern that has caused disruptive flooding in some parts while leaving key paddy and pulses growing areas in northern and eastern India moisture deficient, both farm output and consumer spending in the rural hinterland are likely to take a hit. And with global trade also becalmed amid the sharp slowdown in advanced economies, India’s merchandise exports are sure to weaken in momentum, any benefits from the rupee’s depreciation against the dollar notwithstanding. With the RBI needing to stay laser focused on taming inflation, the onus is on fiscal authorities to spur consumption and investment.