Now that the noise around budget 2023-24 has died down, one can look beyond the fleeting headlines and look closely at the performance of Indian economy. Global institutions like the IMF, World Bank etc. release country outlook at the beginning of each year for countries of the world. Such outlook for India for 2023 is being used by Modi Government and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to claim that the government has been managing the economy quite well. The reality, however, is more complex and a longer time frame will give us a better perspective.
Modi Government came to power in May 2014 and would be completing a decade in office next year. His Party had majority in the Lok Sabha during both the terms and as such was not hamstrung politically. A decade is a fair time to assess the performance of an economy and if one political party under complete control of one individual was at the helm of affairs of the nation, then such a leader can be held directly responsible for the performance of the economy. Taking the first advance estimate of GDP growth rate for 2022-23 as the correct number and assuming the GDP growth rate for next financial year to be 6 percent (global consensus is around this figure), the average GDP growth rate under Modi government will come to slightly less than 5.5 percent per annum. We must not forget that when the Government had come to power in 2014, it would never get tired of saying that the country will soon have ‘double-digit’ growth rates. In Government’s defence one can say that this period witnessed a once in a century pandemic and it affected economic performance. While there is truth in this statement, such votaries of Government must be reminded that the GDP growth rate in 2019-20, for India an year largely untouched by Covid-19, had already plummeted to 3.74 percent. If the Government blames global factors for economic challenges at home, then it must also be honest and give credit wherever due. The somewhat better performance in the first two years of the first term of Modi Government was mainly due to windfall gain made by a collapse in the global crude oil prices.
If we look at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, merchandise export from India had hit a figure of USD 314.41 billion in 2013-14, the last year under UPA II. The same figure for 2021-22 was USD 422 billion, an abysmally low growth rate of 3.75 percent per annum in the last 8 years. A comparison with Vietnam in this regard might prove illuminating. If we look at the World Bank data on merchandise export from India and Vietnam for 2014 and 2021, we see that while Vietnam was abe to increase its exports by 12.18 percent per annum, India could do so only at the rate 2.95 percent p.a.
One of the most disastrous records of the Government is on the front of unemployment, a mammoth challenge facing Indian economy and society. The government has failed to generate productive employment in any meaningful manner and the Indian demographic dividend is being squandered away. There is absolutely no conviction on the agenda of economic reforms and one can only see major about–turns, be it on MNREGA and land (first term) or recently in the area of agriculture. Similarly, the Government first made it amply clear that it was against free trade agreements (FTAs) but is now negotiating multiple FTAs. These examples show that there is no coherent ideology or thought process that is driving economic matters and management of economy is limited to headline management. Though only two components of economic failure have been highlighted here, the failure is widespread and the pain and misery acute.
The Government has been shifting the goalposts deftly to avoid accountability and a supplicant media has made its task easier. We all remember that Modi Government in its first term had promised to double farmers’ income by 2022 but now that the target year is over, how much of the promised target is achieved? Instead of talking about it, the Government now talks about ‘Amrit Kaal’ and the targets for 2047!
I, however, still see an implicit admission of failure on the part of the Government of its handling of our economy. In a recent speech in the state of Tripura a few weeks back home minister Amit Shah asked the people to get their tickets to Ayodhya done for 2024 to visit the Shri Ram Janmbhoomi Temple, claiming that the temple would be ready by then. It makes it very clear that BJP and Modi Government will focus on religious issues in the run up to 2024 general elections and will not harp upon its economic performance over the last one decade because there is nothing worthwhile to show.
Modi Government’s record on economic front has been disastrous for the country and our party will ensure that this record is set straight before the Indian public.
Deepak Balutia , Spokesperson Uttarakhand Congress committee, views are personal
