Exit polls give Congress  edge over BJP, But differ on clear win

Published Date: 11-05-2023 | 5:07 pm

Bengaluru : With most exit polls predicting a hung assembly the two main parties BJP and Congress  have already kicked off manoeuvring and manipulation in the bid to ensure they have numbers to form the next  government. Karnataka saw a record turnout of 73% in the assembly election on wenesday, 2% bigher than the voting percentage of 2018 (71.1%). The results for the 224 seats will be declared on Saturday, May13. Incidents of minor clashes, skirmishes, and fights between workers of political parties were reported at many places across the state, although polling for assembly election in Karnataka, by and large, went off peacefully.

     Exit polls on Wednesday agreed that the Congress has a clear edge in the highstakes Karnataka assembly elections, but disagreed on whether or not the party would win a majority in the 224 member House. While all the polls agree that congress tally will improve from the 80 it won in the 2018 and the BJP will see a drop in its tally from 104 it won five years ago, they differ on the extent of the increase or decrease. Pollsters were also unanimous in projecting a sharp drop in the tally of JD(S) from 37 it won five year ago, but the party could still end up holding the aces if the results throw up a hung assembly.

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     “The two national parties, BJP and Congress will definitely try to break our party as they will not get the required numbers to form the government.” Said JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy, who is aspiring to become chief minister for the third time. BJP  emerged the single largest party in 2018 but fell short of majority by nine seats . While JD(S) and  Congress formed a coalition government. BJP triggered the fall of coalition government by inducting 17 MLAs from congress and JD(S) into its fold. The saffron party formed government in 2019.  Although opinion polls indicates a fractured verdict, Karnataka state Congress chief D K Shivakumar dismissed a post –poll  alliance with JD(S).

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     After voting at a shiggaon, Haveri district, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai on Wednesday said BJP will return to the helm with an outright majority. He is seeking re-election for a fourth successive term. He said he would win by the record margin, “so will BJP and it will form the government with record number of seats. We will secure a comfortable majority” he said.

Inspite of concerted efforts and a sustained awareness drive by the Election of India (ECI)  through multiple channels of communication to increase voting percentage in the bengaluru city, a huge chunk of Benegalureans yet again stayed away from the polling booths. With nearly half of the registered voters preferring not to vote, At 54.8%, turnout for Bengaluru Urban diststrict pulled down a average for the state . However late night update from the district election officer put the figure at 56.8%. Even last ditch efforts by politicians to lure voters to the booths and EC initiatives to get celebrities to vote early in the day had not much impact on voters who shied  away from the polling stations. In a bid to scale up turnout, the Bengaluru Urban district administration and BBMP had carried out a micro-analysis of the polling pattern during the 2018 assembly polls and indentified multiple reasons. A whopping 4,349 polling booths that recorded below-average polling percentage were indentified and targeted interventions were taken up to educate voters living within jurisdiction of such booths. Bengaluru’s poor performance came despite the commission’s efforts that were supplemented by other departments has the officialdom in a huddle.

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