Last year was bad, but December 2022 had marked the steepest fall in two years for India’s goods exports, with products worth $34.5 billion shipped out — 12.2% lower than a year ago. This was the second time in three months that shipments dropped year-on-year and top Commerce Ministry officials sought to calm nerves by citing the global headwinds that were posing challenges for Indian merchandise. These include the clouds of recession blowing through Europe and the U.S., the COVID-19 situation in China and a reversion towards protectionism in some markets. To be clear, a high base effect also played a role in exaggerating the year-on-year export dip in December. Amid the ongoing tumultuous times, a month-on-month reading of export trends is perhaps a better way to gauge the situation. For now, December’s export numbers, even if lifted by the last batches of pre-holiday festive shipments reaching their destined shores, hold up well on this front vis-à-vis October and November’s initial trade estimates. The other silver lining is that imports also contracted 3.5% in December, the first such instance since November 2020, although they remained flat sequentially at around $58.2 billion. For the first nine months of 2022-23, India’s goods exports are still 9.1% higher than a year ago, slightly lower than the 11.1% rise recorded till November 2022. Some agencies expect the global recession to hit demand for Indian goods far harder in the current quarter so much so that the full year could still end up with a shrinkage in exports. With China reopening, competition is expected to intensify even as demand shrinks. Some recent government moves such as fixing glitches in a duty remission scheme for exports and lifting curbs on iron ore shipments have helped, but more macro- and swifter micro-policy actions are warranted to keep the export engine chugging.