Due to increase in the price of gold in the international market, there has been a significant increase in the price of gold in India also. On March 5, the price of 24 carat gold crossed the level of Rs.66,000 per 10 grams, which is the highest price of gold till date. Further, the price of 10 grams of 24 carat gold was Rs 66,051 on 10th March 2024. The price of gold continues to rise in the international market. On March 5, the price of 1 ounce gold increased to $ 2,126. Not only this, but the price of gold also increased by 2.5 percent in 2 months of 2024. Due to the high price of gold, during 14 to 18 February, Sovereign Gold equivalent to the price of 12.8 tonnes of gold was purchased, because by investing in it, investors got more profit than gold. The price of gold per 10 grams was Rs.62,600 on February 28, Rs.63,900 on February 29, Rs.64,250 on March 1, Rs.65,200 on March 4 and Rs.66,100 on March 5. Even on March 10, the price of gold remained at Rs 66,021.
According to some of the world’s leading rating agencies that estimate the price of gold, such as ABV AMRO, the price of gold may be $ 2,000 per ounce in 2024, whereas, according to DBS, the price of gold in 2024 may be $ 2,050 per ounce, while According to TD Securities, the price of gold may be $ 2,133 per ounce in 2024, while according to Citi Group, the price of gold in 2024 may be $ 2175 per ounce and according to UBS, the price of gold in 2024 may be $ 2,250 per ounce.
Indications show that the Federal Reserve Bank of USA may cut interest rates in May. This may lead to reduce loan and deposit rates and people will invest in gold in the hope of higher returns, which will increase the demand for gold and increase its price. There is also Akshaya Tritiya in May, in which gold is purchased in large quantities, as doing so is considered auspicious.
Lok Sabha elections in India are going to be held in the months of May and June and there is a strong possibility of Modi government coming back to power. Political stability strengthens the economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures have also been better than expected. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the current financial year was 8.4 percent, which is better than everyone’s forecasts. India’s GDP, in amount, reached Rs.41.74 lakh crore in the third quarter, increasing India’s chances of becoming the world’s fourth largest economy. Even in the second quarter, the GDP growth rate was 7.6 percent.
The retail inflation rate declined to 5.10 percent in January 2024, which was 5.72 percent in the month of December. There will be further reduction in inflation. Having better condition of the economy, the employment situation in the country will be better and in the state of self-reliance, people may be motivated to invest in gold in the hope of higher returns.
Investors benefit from the increase in the price of gold, but difficulties increase for those who need to buy it. Nowadays it is the wedding season, and this is the need of the people in India, because in the social fabric of India, gold ornaments are given to girls in marriage. Now even men are given gold ornaments.
Since 2024 is a leap year, this year is considered auspicious for marriage. Many marriages took place on 29 February. However, the months of April, May, August, November, and December are also considered auspicious for marriage. According to Mithila Panchang, there are a total of 32 auspicious days times for marriage in 2024.
In India, there has been a close relationship between marriage and gold jewellery since time immemorial. Marriage here is considered incomplete without gold jewellery. There is a tradition of giving jewellery to both the bride and groom during marriage. In marriage, many types of jewellery are given to the bride, while in India there is a tradition of giving gold chain, ring, bracelet etc. to the groom.
Gold is exchanged during the 16 rites of Hindu religion i.e. from birth to death. At the time of birth of a child, he or she is made to wear a gold pendant with a black thread around his waist. Even at the time of Yajnopavit Sanskar, gold ornaments are worn on the child. When bride enters the house for the first time, the mother-in-law gifts gold jewellery to her daughter-in-law. Not only this, even at the time of death, gold is donated to a Brahmin.
For Indian women, gold is not just a jewel, but a symbol of their well-being, self-respect, and pride. Therefore, they buy gold but never sell it. Cases of selling gold jewellery are seen only in situations of crisis.
In marriage, rich and poor all give gold ornaments to their daughter as per their capacity, but now it has become a problem for the poor to give gold ornaments to their daughter in marriage, because in the last 17 years, the price of gold per 10 grams has increased. There has been a significant increase in price. The price of gold per 10 grams was Rs.10,000 on 5 May 2006, which increased to Rs.50,000 on 22 July 2020 and crossed the level of Rs.62,000 on 20 March 2023 and crossed the level of Rs.66,000 on 5 March 2024.
According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), the per capita annual income in India was Rs.33,717 in the financial year 2006-07, while the per capita annual income in the financial year 2022-23 was Rs.98,118. If we convert this annual income into per month, then the average monthly income of an Indian in the financial year 2006-07 was Rs.2,810, which will increase to Rs.8,177 per person in the financial year 2022-23. However, these figures can be considered merely an indication, as it is a figure calculated by dividing the total income of the country by the total population.
According to an estimate, in the year 2006, an average of Rs.5 lakh to Rs.10 lakh was being spent on a wedding, of which the share of expenditure on jewellery was usually 20 to 30 percent. Today this expenditure has increased to Rs.10 lakh to 20 lakh, but the share of expenditure on jewellery is decreasing. Due to the unprecedented increase in the price of gold in the last 17 years, the wedding budget of the lower and middle class has increased significantly, but the income has not increased comparatively as expected. However, this comparison is meaningless because the exact data of everyone’s income is not available.
In such a situation, the marriage will take place during the auspicious time of marriage this year, but not everyone will be able to give jewellery to their daughters and sons-in-law as per their wish, because the Federal Reserve Bank is expected to cut policy rates in the coming months, and loan and deposit interest rates will be reduced. The price of gold may increase further in the coming months due to the possibility of continued global geopolitical crisis, disruption of supply chains globally, etc.
Satish Singh, Ahmedabad based Senior Columnist,Views are personal
