In order to neutralize the anti-incumbency wave that arose due to the issues of ‘farmer-soldier-wrestler’ against the BJP government, the BJP after keeping Prime Minister Modi’s trusted confidant Manohar Lal Khattar on the Chief Minister’s throne for about nine and a half years, brought Nayab Singh Saini, who belongs to the backward caste, to power only six months before the elections so that the Other Backward Class (OBC) vote bank could be unilaterally cashed in favour of the BJP.
With this hope, the BJP had also declared before the Haryana Assembly elections that even after the elections, Nayab Singh Saini would again be the Chief Minister in their government.
To woo the OBC votes en masse under the chief ministership of Nayab Singh Saini, BJP fielded 21 OBC candidates out of total 90, but adopting the same tactics, to snatch its share of OBC votes from BJP’s clutches, Congress also gave 20 seats to OBC category, which is now barricading the BJP’s efforts.
BJP thought that by making Saini the Chief Minister, BJP will get OBC vote bank in bulk, but BJP probably failed to assess that Saini is not being considered as the face of OBC, but he is being considered as Khattar’s face mask. Why would the largest OBC section, Ahir (Yadav) caste, be happy with Saini being promoted? The vote bank of Ahirs (Yadavs) has its influence in about one and a half dozen assembly constituencies and can turn anyone’s victory into defeat. The Yadav vote bank has understood that no matter how much Rao Indrajit Singh claims to bring power in South Haryana, the BJP will never let Rao’s plans come true. Therefore, this time the Yadavs seem to have made up anti-BJP mood.
Before the elections, Union Minister Rao Indrajit Singh had been expressing anger on almost every platform that this time he will bring the helm of Haryana to South Haryana. Without naming anyone, he has repeatedly mentioned that people junior to him are being given cabinet rank posts in the Union Cabinet, whereas he has not been able to rise beyond the post of Minister of State for the last 15 years. Rao’s supporters are also angry with this helplessness of Rao Indrajit Singh and due to this, BJP is also afraid of losing votes in Ahirwal. To calm down the anger of Rao and his supporters, Rao’s daughter Aarti Rao, who was denied party ticket in 2019, this time has been made a candidate in the assembly elections, but how much this lollipop will be able to pacify the resentment, only the election results will tell.
BJP’s OBC card theory got another jolt when the former minister and president of BJP’s Haryana OBC Morcha, Karan Dev Kamboj, who is upset at not getting a ticket in the assembly elections, assessing the declining position of the BJP, left all types of BJP membership including the OBC Morcha presidentship and joined the Congress alleging that the saffron party considers the backward community as a mere vote bank and is not ready to give them rights.
Seeing anger of farmers against the party and on not getting the ticket, BJP’s Haryana Kisan Morcha president and former MLA Sukhvinder Mandhi has also bade goodbye to the party and joined the Congress.
Smelling the weak position of the party and decreasing gravitational force of the top leadership, especially PM Modi and Amit Shah during the current Lok Sabha elections, wherein BJP lost its 50 percent seats in 2024 in comparison to 2019 in Haryana, party’s many stalwarts have also left the party.
To mention a few more; India’s richest woman, Jindal group chairperson, BJP leader Savitri Jindal has joined the electoral fray and filed papers as an independent candidate after she was denied the ticket by the BJP. A former minister and two-time MLA, she put her foot down to take the field opposite BJP candidate Kamal Gupta from Hisar assembly constituency, despite the fact that her son Naveen Jindal is a BJP MP from Kurukshetra.
Former power minister, and a candidate of BJP in just held Lok Sabha election from Hisar, Ranjeet Singh Chautala has also left the BJP and is fighting assembly election against the BJP candidate as an independent.
What’s on ground and why it’s so?
In the present scenario, the BJP seems to be losing the ground badly. Political analysts suggest that BJP hardly will cross the 25 mark and it will remain between 20-25 out of 90 seats, whereas its main opponent Congress playing on high pitch seems to get a major chunk and may get its share somewhat between 55—60, leaving behind a scope of winning 5 to 10 seats for others, including independents. Former Deputy Prime Minister, late Chaudhary Devilal’s clan may suffer the most.
The ground report shows that the atrocities against the agitating farmers, tyranny over women wrestlers, squeezing the scope and employment opportunities for the youth willing to serve the Indian Military by enforcing Agniveer scheme; are some major reasons for the resentment in Haryana’s voters and the thin position of the BJP. However, harassing the people through Property ID, Family ID, different types of portals and mockery with unemployed youth allowing uncontrolled frequent paper leaks are also the factors of creating an anti- incumbency wave.
Will Saini get the CM throne again, if BJP comes to power?
Union Home Minister, Amit Shah, while addressing a worker meeting on June 29 at Panchkula, Haryana declared that even after the elections, Nayab Singh Saini would again be the Chief Minister in the BJP government. Shah said, “BJP will fight the next assembly elections under the leadership of Saini, who will also be the next chief minister.”
Commenting over the statement of Shah, an Unemployed youth says, “Na Nau Mann Tel Hoga, Na Radha Nachegi (If sky falls, we shall catch the larks). He adds – Saini is being presented as the second Channi, just to woo the OBC votes, to whom Congress had floated as next CM of Punjab to fetch the Dalit votes in the assembly election of 2022 in the state.
Now, from the claims of the state level leaders of the BJP and the promise of Amit Shah in Behal, Bhiwani rally held on 17 September in favour of state finance minister J P Dalal from Loharu constituency, it seems that even if the BJP government is formed, then also the Chief Minister could be someone else instead of Saini.
Union Minister Rao Indrajit Singh had been expressing his desire to become the Chief Minister indirectly almost on every platform that this time he will bring the helm of Haryana to South Haryana.
Now the former Haryana Home Minister Anil Vij too has staked his claim to the CM chair. On September 15,2024, he said, “I am the senior most MLA of BJP in Haryana. I have contested elections for 6 times. On the demand of people, I will claim for the designation of CM on the basis of my seniority this time. However, it is in the hands of high command whether they will make me CM or not. If they make me the CM I will change the picture of Haryana.”
BJP candidate from Loharu constituency, the finance minister in the present government, J P Dalal has also started to present himself as the sure shot future Chief Minister of Haryana in his speeches after the Behal rally of Amit Shah on September 17, in which shah had exhorted the people of Loharu to elect him the MLA and the party will make him a ‘Bada Aadmi’. (Tum Dalal ko MLA Bana Do, Party Ise Bada Aadmi Bana Degi.) “You make him MLA; the Party will make him a big person.”
Some Political Analysts think that BJP top leadership has smelt the essence of the ground and they have concluded that the Nayab Singh Saini is not being taken as the leader of entire OBC category and his name can only woo the Saini voters upto some extent, so the party has started to lure the different segments of the society by projecting the candidates of other castes also as Chief Minister and it seems that the party itself has allowed to pose them as potential CM, otherwise, the leaders of Dalal level, only one time MLA, can never claim to become the Chief Minister in BJP rule, wherein six times MLA and Home Minister in previous Khattar government, Anil Vij and Three times MLA , Six times Member of Parliament and Minister of State in the central ministry for more than last 15 years, Rao Inderjeet Singh have not been ever considered even for the waiting list for the Chief Ministership.
Anyway, according to Galib – ‘Humko Maloom Hai Jannat Ki Hakiqat , Lekin Dil Bahlaane Ko Galib Khayal Achchha Hai.’ (I know the reality of heaven; but this thought is good to entertain the heart.)
Jag Mohan Thaken is a Senior Journalist, Columnist & Political Analyst, views are personal
