Nearly two months after the Lok Sabha elections, Haryana state will now vote to elect a new state government after the Election Commission on Friday has announced a single-phase election in 90 assembly constituencies in the state on October 1. Though, there is a presence of several political parties contesting in the upcoming polls but the recent Lok Sabha election results indicate there will be a tough contest only between ruling Bhartiya Janta Party and the Congress. There are  total number of nearly 2.01 crore voters in Haryana which include nearly 1.06 crore male and nearly 95 lakh female voters, among those nearly 2.5 lakh voters are of age above 85 years, besides nearly 4.52 lakh new voters are going to cast vote first time in coming elections at 20,629 polling stations across the state, which include nearly 7000 in urbans and above 13,000 in rural areas.

In 2019 Vidhan Sabha polls in Haryana state BJP was able to win 40 seats, Congress won 31 seats, newly launched Janhot Janta Party (JJP) by Dushyant Chautala, also former Deputy Prime Minister in the state had won 10 seats, independent candidates won 7 seats, both INLD and HALOPA were able to win one seat each when BJP formed government in the state second time having alliance with JJP. But the situation is different now, and the present scenario reveals the state is going to have a tough contest between BJP and Congress candidates in the coming Vidhan Sabha polls to be held on October 1. As regard Lok Sabha polls held in 2019 BJP won all 10 seats, whereas during recent 2024 Lok sabha polls held in the state both BJP and Congress were winners on five seats each in which out of total number of 90 Vidhan Sabha seats in the state BJP was leading in 44 and Congress leading in 42 seats. However, during coming Vidhan Sabha polls INLD jointly with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is going to contest on all seats, whereas now JJP also claiming to contest polls on all seats in Vidhan Sabha polls, although the party seems to be on the verge of collapse due to most of its MLAs has already resigned from the party. Moreover, in recent past Lok Sabha polls the performance of INLD, JJP and AAP contestants was completely unsatisfactory.  

According to political experts in the state, the political situation in the state that led to a hung assembly verdict in 2019, the scenario is quite different this time. They said, there has definitely been a rise in anti-incumbency against the ruling BJP as result of recent past Lok Sabha polls showed. The party was left with a massive drop in its vote share as well as in its number of seats. They are of opinion the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) a new political party born out of Chautala family split in the once-dominant Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in which the party supremo Om Parkash Chautala was able to have Chief Minister’s chair five times in the state now seems not as formidable as it did in 2019, when it emerged kingmaker and helped BJP to form its second successive government in the state. According to political experts, the INLD hopes success after tying up with the Bahujan Samaj Party, but the revival of the INLD does not appear in sight due to the party’s overall weakening after the family divide. Moreover, an earlier alliance between the INLD and BSP too hadfailed. As regards the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), also trying its luck to rule over in Haryana appears to have little space to grow as well. It contested one Lok Sabha seat at Kurukshetra in alliance with the Congress, but lost and the Congress decided not to ally with the AAP in Vidhan Sabha polls. On the whole, the Congress remains the major challenger to face BJP’s bid to form a government for the third time in the state, which exhibited its better-than-expected performance in the recent Lok Sabha polls due to the consolidation of Jat, farmer and Dalit voters in its favour. It cannot be denied, the BJP came to power in Haryana for the first time in 2014 and then repeated its victory in the 2019 assembly polls mainly due to massive support from non-Jat voters.

BJP fighting state elections under chief minister Nayab Saini because of his ‘down to earth’ stretagy, polite nature and attract OBC voters having the largest vote bank in Haryana state comprising of 30% to 35% share, also have grip over the upper caste vote base and urban voters as observed by the various announcements and sops announced during a short period of couple of months as chief minister in the state. The Congress’s former CM Bhupinder Hooda, his son Rohtak MP Deepender Hooda and state party president Ch. Udai Bhan have been holding separate rallies and ‘padyatras’ across all 90 constituencies in the state in order to attract voters. According to political analysts, while the Congress appears to have an edge over the BJP ahead of the upcoming polls, but only problem for the party is the infighting among its top leadership – the Sirsa MP Shelja and Bhupinder Singh Hooda camps strongly opposing to each other in-spite of repeated high command directions . The Congress has a better chance to defeat the BJP in coming Vidhan Sabha polls if both groups work unitedly.