With the relaxation of the US sanctions against Russia, the ongoing exchange of goods, popularly called ‘hush-hush’ trade between India and Russia, is expected to end soon. It appears that the target of achieving USD 100 billion trade between India and Russia export and imports of goods scheduled to be attained by 2030 might be achieved much before the end of the current decade.
The process of the relaxation of the US sanctions against Russia has already begun. It may just be a matter of a few hours, if not weeks, huge trade opportunities will be knocking at the doors of India.
The end of US sanctions are now opening unprecedented short-term as well as long-term opportunities for the Indian industry and agriculture. These developments may also be offering an Indian role to the war-torn Eastern Europe.
India enjoys the confidence of the US as well as of Russia, which may further strengthen her alliance with them influencing global trade.
It, however, needs a well thought out strategy to be accompanied by an immaculate implementation with rigorous quality controls accompanied by strict adherence to the time schedules
In this context, a top business man has shared the story of the Arabian Nights with this author about the magic words, “Open Sesame” or in Hindi, ‘Khul ja Sim Sim’. He repeated the story in the Indian context. Further, he compares the plight of the Indian businessmen with the story of a poor woodcutter, Ali Baba, who was being cheated by his cunning brother, Kasim, but the diplomacy of a slave girl, Morgiana, not only destroys the thieves, but enables her master to access the immense wealth locked in the cave.
A similar opportunity may be waiting India, but it is to be ascertained yet whether the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be able to get a perceptive team having the intelligence of the slave girl, or this rare opportunity is buried in the corridors of the country’s well protected enclave of the
External Affairs Ministry, mostly dominated by the carrier diplomats. The experience so far has been that they need to be thoroughly oriented for this task. At present, they take up serious trade issues in titbits without focusing on the specific goals. It cannot be denied that in recent years, the induction of some unnecessary elements, mostly considered irrelevants, but believed to be close to the Modi establishment, have already weakened the country’s trade diplomacy. Many of these external elements are also not known for honesty and having any specific agenda.
During the past three months, they have already complicated, if not compromised the country’s interests, especially in the context of the US.
The credit of the recent understanding and breakthrough between America and Russia goes to the special envoy of the White House, Sieve Witkoff. He has worked out a thorough plan for removing broad-spectrum sanctions against Russia from 2022.
It also reveals that he has succeeded in implementing President Donald Trump’sagenda prioritising trade and business over the stereotyped approach towards diplomacy only focussing on strategic and power games.
Trump’s decision to assign a specific task to a special envoy appears to be effective. Instead of deploying career diplomats engaged in conventional exchanges in world politics, he has specific policy towards peace and cooperation.
The Setback- It is high time that the Modi regime should reposition the current focus of its foreign policy from personal image-making to the country’s interests. He has to learn the hard way like Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1971, who finally succeeded in fragmenting Pakistan, and also made India self-sufficient in food grains.
“It is high time that his kitchen cabinet, comprising some superannuated civil servants, realize that the power games in the global play of forces cannot be replaced by unnecessary photo opportunities and dinners,” confides a senior diplomat to the Financial World.
While appreciating Modi’s peace initiative before the Russian President Vladimir Putin, it is being felt that he should not hesitate to use this initiative to embark upon much aggressive trade diplomacy, and if necessary he should engage senior officials from the key ministries from foreign trade, agriculture. Having a Gujarati background, where young people prefer to generate wealth rather than being enrolled in government jobs, he needs to think beyond his favourites in the industry, he further stated.
Paradigm Changes- The details of the US-Russian agreement are being awaited, but the indications are that the Russian banking system would soon be enjoying the facilities of the global banking system, including Swift. Meanwhile, efforts are also being made to restore the Russian gas supply lines to Europe. With the security protocols in the Black Sea restored, the Russians can import huge agricultural equipment from the US.
Opportunity for India- There are reports that the US has accepted the proposal to set up a huge aluminium plant in Russia in principle. It may look a little worrisome for the Indian aluminium industry, but it could be turned into a huge opportunity for the country to be engaged in this task in Russia also.
Similarly, in the food and agriculture business, India could also explore opportunities, but for it she has to reinvent a new policy by co-opting the captains of business as well as experienced bureaucrats in the agriculture and commerce ministries.
Apart from these sectors, the Russians will be able to access lower maritime insurance costs, improved access to ports and also allowing them to be a part of the global banking system.
It is being stated that unless the Modi government sheds off its stereotype approach, India may lose the forthcoming opportunity. Like in the fields of nuclear science and space technologies, India was ahead of China, but our narrow approach and the rhetoric of becoming a ‘Vishwa Guru’ has finally dwarfed India in these key areas. India’s peace initiative may serve the country, but the bureaucratic approach would not work.Gopal Misra has been associated with national and international media. His books on journalism and geo-politics have been well-appreciated. Views are personal.
