The latest advance estimates of India’s national income for the current fiscal year paint a picture of an economy buoyed by government spending, seemingly on steroids. The National Statistical Office (NSO) projects a marginal uptick in real GDP growth to 7.3%, a slender advance from the previous year’s 7.2%. However, a closer examination of the sectoral output and expenditure numbers reveals an economy still in search of sustainable, consumption-led growth drivers. The Gross Value Added (GVA) growth, a key measure of economic output, is anticipated to decelerate to 6.9%, down from the last fiscal year’s 7%. This slowing is particularly evident in the agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishing sector — the cornerstone of rural India. This sector is projected to see a growth of just 1.8%, the slowest in eight years and significantly lower than the 4% pace of 2022-23. This subdued performance, potentially exacerbated by the shortfall in kharif output and lagging rabi sowing, particularly in paddy and pulses, casts a shadow on the rural economy, a major employment provider and a significant contributor outside the services sector. On the demand side, private final consumption expenditure, a dominant GDP component, is set to record its slowest expansion in over two decades at 4.4%. This slowdown reflects the rural economy’s struggles, impacted by monsoon irregularities and weak farm output, dampening demand for a myriad of consumer goods. The silver lining remains Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), including government capital spending, which is pegged to grow by 10.3%, reaching a record 34.9% share of GDP. This shines as the primary growth driver in an otherwise subdued economic landscape. As India approaches a general election, policymakers face a daunting dilemma: continue robust spending to sustain growth, risking fiscal imbalance, or tighten fiscal policy, potentially losing further economic momentum. The path India chooses will significantly influence not just its immediate economic future but also its long-term growth trajectory.