During the past 35 days or so, the Israel-Hamas war has been overwhelming the international media predicting the collapse of the détente being recently worked out between Israel and its estranged Arab countries following prolonged negotiations.
It, however, it goes to the credit of Mohammed bin Salman or MBS, crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arab, that he quietly bids time to allow his rivals in the West Asian region, especially Iran, play their respective power games, but with the defeat of Hamas looming large, Iran’s power game operating through its proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah known as outfits of dreaded terrorists, appears to have exhausted. MBS now poised to play the leading role for peace in the region.
It is being widely believed that the appeal of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, just four days before leaving for Riyadh to attend the emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) scheduled for November 12, to the Indian PM, Narendra Mody, for mediation in ending the war is just rhetoric. He asks Modi “to use India’s capacities to end Israeli actions in Gaza, expressing support for global efforts towards ceasefire”, but there has been no immediate Indian response. His inability to criticise Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel on the morning of October seven, perhaps, has led to the Indian silence.
There is little chance of the OIC endorsing a joint military campaign against Israel; it is also not being ruled out that MBS succeeding in persuading Iran to adjust with the obtaining realities in West Asia. Iran’s present confrontation with the West, especially its zeal to obtain nuclear weapons despite being signatory to the NPT, has only driven it to the camp of North Korea, China and now Russia. It is also being stated that while MBS is introducing reforms in his country, Iran is subjugating its women. In this back ground, it may just be a wishful thinking that the two regional powers could be reaching to a consensus at the OIC. However, Iran, which had agreed to resume diplomatic ties with Saudi Arab in March after seven years of hostility, might also relent from its approach and usher in an era of cooperation among them, thus ending their intense rivalry.
The Hamas strategy to prevent any strong reprisal from Israel following its terrorist attack has now petered out. Israel is being criticised for its “cruel revenge” against the Hamas housed in the Gaza, but it has also taken has revenge against the carnage of the Hamas terrorists’ attack on the morning of Oct. 7, killing some 1,400 Israeli civilians, and taking more than 240 people hostage. Israel’s counter attack has already destroyed most of Gaza and its tunnels, causing large scale destruction and deaths, almost killing ten thousand civilians, including children estimated to be four thousand or so.
There are reports that by the time OIC takes place, Israeli seizes of Gaza might have been relaxed for enabling the UN relief team to help the war victims. India, which is being asked to mediate for peace, has already been sending medical relief through the UN agencies to the victims of war.
The Indian Initiative– The South Block in New Delhi, which houses the offices of the prime minister and foreign ministry, is exploring the possible role of India in West Asia’s peace process. The mature leadership of Saudi Arab and Egypt appears to have already thwarted the threat to their growing cooperation with Israel caused by the invasion of Hamas.
The prevalent mood, however, in the region is not to intensify war, but much will depend upon the OIC and its approach towards the human crisis and the restoration of peace. It is also being keenly watched whether the OIC would advice for peace or would cling to the anti-Jew rhetoric. The reality is that the Israeli offensive has already derailed the strategic calculations of Hamas and its patrons, especially Iran.
Saudi Arab is the Leader – With the final defeat of Hamas in Gaza, MBS is finally on a commanding situation in the regional politics. It is natural for China to be upset, because the reassertion of cooperation between Israel and Arab countries might be denying its ambitious programme to have ‘strategic depth’ in the Gulf and also to replace the USA in this oil-rich region. The OIC might also pave the way for better cooperation between Iran and its Arab neighbours. It is also being asked whether the support of China and Russia to Iran and its proxies really help Hamas.
Iran is aware that the beginning of cooperation between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain signed on September 15, 2020 is now poised for a new level of understanding in the region. It is to be seen, whether Raisi’s visit to Saudi Arab, would be prompting Iran to reorient its current policy of sabotaging the peace process through its proxies. Meanwhile, Palestinians can hope for a liberal financial assistance from the civil society of the USA, UK and France and other European powers. The developed world is already shocked by the ongoing genocide in the Israel-Hamas War and keen to extend full humanitarian assistance to the war victims.
The UN relief team has already lost nearly 90 volunteers in the conflict zone. The number of deaths is increasing with the passage of time. It is estimated that more than 20,000 dead and 17,000 severely wounded, the dark shadow of this holocaust might be haunting all of us for decades now.
Gopal Misra has been associated with national and international media. His books on journalism and geo-politics have been well-appreciated. Views are personal.
