The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a 23-year old joint Sino-Russian outfit, has recently been witnessing a decline in its influence or effectiveness, especially due to India’s recent cool responses towards it.
The Indian apathy can be traced to the myopic policies of Beijing and its ally, Pakistan. Interestingly, the attitude of China towards India has continued less than friendly during the past ten years of the Modi regime despite being benefited by more than 1100 billion USD by accessing India’s vast consumer market without any hindrance.
On the insistence of the Chinese President Xi Jinping India had reluctantly joined the SCO in 2017. Encouraged by this proximity between Beijing and New Delhi, the Russian President Vladimir Putin asked for a strategic alliance among the three countries Russia, India and China (RIC), but China foolishly torpedoed the emerging close ties among them by attacking the Indian border posts at the Galwan Valley in the Eastern Ladakh.
During the past four years, Chinese diplomacy has been active against India from Maldives to Bangladesh. On her part, India has been trying to keep the Dragon in good humor by allowing liberal imports even at the cost of her own industry. It cannot be denied that the demonetization in 2016 had further boosted Chinese imports. Most of the industries in the small sector producing cheaper consumer products had either been shut down or were getting their products manufactured in mainland China.
Therefore, the Indian reservations regarding the personal presence of Modi at the SCO summit scheduled on October 15-16 in Islamabad is natural.
It is high time that both China and Pakistan have to realize that conspiracy and co-operation cannot go together.
Sharif Under Pressure of GHQ -In recent months, the increased activities of terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir and the takeover of Bangladesh by Muslim radicals are a part of a larger conspiracy against India. Their aggressive tone against India’s secular polity was much pronounced at the death anniversary programme of Mohammad Ali Jinnah held in Dacca recently.
The recent events in Pakistan indicate that the army and its hybrid government led by Shahbaz Sharif is facing its existential crisis being under pressure from the army to enact laws, including some constitutional amendments, to limit the powers of the judiciary.
As a part of its agenda to crush the country’s main Opposition represented by the former prime minister Imran Khan. Khan’s supporters in the army like Faize Hamid are facing court martial.
The survival of the hybrid government of Shahbaz Sharif in Islamabad would depend on how efficiently he could script the epitaph of Pakistan’s fragile democracy.
Dark Shadows on SCO– Both China and Russia are aware of the importance of the presence of Modi in the SCO summit, an alliance comprising most of the countries of South Asia and Eurasia. The Dragon has waved an olive branch during the brief talks held in Moscow recently between India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi . Yi has also announced that his country is going to retreat its border forces a few hundred meters in Eastern Ladakh, where since 2020, the Chinese and Indian forces are in combat gear after the Galwan clashes in the high Himalayas.
It is for the Mandarins of the South Block, which houses India’s External Affairs Ministry, that how much they could trust China.
It may be recalled that the SCO, which was just a group comprising Russia,China and some Eurasian countries, gained credibility with India’s joining in 2017. Later, with the Chinese attack on the Indian defense posts in the Galwan Valley of the Eastern Ladakh, India’s enthusiasm for the SCO has weakened.
In spite of the crucial meeting held on September 11 between Doval and Yi, the presence of the full Indian contingent in Islamabad is to be finalized by New Delhi.
In spite of the trust deficit between India and China, Yi’s assurance to Doval has received positive media response in the Indian media.
India’s Reluctance -The Indian hesitation regarding her strong presence in the summit could also be traced to the joint mischief of China and Pakistan in Maldives and Dacca. They have successfully got their protege installed in the two countries. Their most successful strategy was in Bangladesh, where they ousted the PM Sheikh Hasina with the help of the army and the Islamists.
It is intriguing why the US intelligence agency, CIA has suddenly become a collaborator with China and Pakistan. During late sixties and seventies even before the visit of the then US President Richard Nixon to Beijing CIA agents were working with Pakistan and China for fanning insurgency in India’s north-eastern region.
Remembering Jinnah -The Islamists, having the support of the CIA, China and Pakistan have succeeded in installing a military government in Dacca with a civilian face. Bangladesh is under the control of the army without the declaration of martial law.
Their success in Bangladesh could be judged by the fact that for the first time since India’s partition in 1947, the death of the founder of Pakistan, Mohammad Ali Jinnah was never mourned publicly. During the period, 1947 to 1971, even during the repressive regime of the then Pakistani military, Jinnah’s death anniversary was never observed.
The remembrance was observed at the Dacca Press Club recently, where the programme was conducted in Urdu.
The speakers were seen vying with each other in praising Jinnah for promoting the two-nation theory that the Hindus and Muslims are two different nations. The programme was presided over by Pakistan’s Deputy High Commissioner, Kamaran Dhangal.
With the unbridled power being enjoyed by the establishment, an euphemism for the army in Pakistan, the internal conflicts have increased in recent months. There is a growing realization that by separating from secular India, a historical blunder has been committed. Instead of correcting the mistake the establishment has unleashed Islamists within the country and the region that too with active cooperation of two world powers, the US and China.
It will be quite embarrassing for the Indian leadership to sit with the country’s enemies on the high table in Islamabad at the SCO.
Gopal Misra has been associated with national and international media. His books on journalism and geo-politics have been well-appreciated. Views are personal.
