Taming inflation only way to deal with slow growth

Inflation in India continues on a worrying uptrend with the consumer price index-based reading accelerating to an eight-month high of 6.07 per cent last month, while wholesale prices logged a double-digit increase for the eleventh straight month. February’s headline WPI inflation spurted to 13.11 per cent. Retail inflation remained stuck above the RBI’s upper tolerance threshold of 6 per cent for the second month, as food price inflation quickened to 5.85 per cent. Households in the hinterland bore a bigger brunt of the burden as price gains measured by the consumer food price index for rural areas surged by 69 basis points from January’s level, to 5.87 per cent. Price gains in the key protein source of meat and fish jumped by almost 200 basis points from the preceding month to 7.45 per cent, while vegetables also logged inflation of 6.13 per cent in February. The price of India’s crude basket had already risen by over $20 a barrel since December to $94.07 last month and with global crude prices currently in uncharted territory on account of the war, and the rupee having weakened by about 2.5 per cent against the dollar since the start of the conflict, it is hard to see any near-term relief on the fuel price front. A glance at last month’s producer prices of the energy basket shows inflation in the fuel and power category of the wholesale price index was at 31.5 per cent. And in a sign that manufacturers are no longer able to keep absorbing cost pressures, inflation in manufactured products accelerated to 9.84 per cent presaging more pain for consumers. With the RBI’s latest consumer confidence survey showing most households reporting further increases in overall spending on essentials and remaining far from sanguine on the prices outlook, policymakers need to act expeditiously to tame inflation or risk it undermining the very growth they are currently focused on supporting.

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